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The Nifty 50 index has broken below the 24,000 mark, registering a 1.5% loss during the monthly F&O expiry on November 28. This decline follows a three-day consolidation and is marked by a long red candle on daily charts, indicating potential weakness. Key levels to watch include 23,600 for support and 24,100–24,200 for resistance.
The Nifty 50 index remained rangebound between 24,100 and 24,350 for the third consecutive session, closing 0.3% higher on November 27, ahead of the monthly derivative contract expiry. The RSI indicates a positive bias, with potential targets at 24,550 and 24,700, while support is seen in the 24,000–23,900 zone.
The Nifty 50 ended its two-day winning streak, closing down by 0.1% amid volatility on November 26, while remaining within the upper Bollinger Bands. Resistance is noted at the 100-day EMA between 24,300-24,350, with a need for a decisive break above this level to target 24,550. Support is expected in the 24,000-24,100 range, indicating a trading range of 24,000-24,350 in the near term.
Manish Sonthalia projects a 10-12% earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies in FY26 and 10-15% in FY27, leading to an average EPS of Rs 1245. He suggests that the Nifty could test levels between 22,000 and 22,500, contingent on government spending and signs of earnings revival.
The market rebounded strongly, recovering nearly 2% for the week ending November 22, driven by short-covering ahead of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance's victory in Maharashtra assembly elections. As the week of November 25 begins, attention will shift to the assembly election results, India's GDP figures, and U.S. economic data, with expectations of continued positive momentum despite potential volatility from monthly F&O expiry. The BSE Sensex closed at 79,117, up 1.98%, while the Nifty 50 rose 1.6% to 23,907.
The Indian rupee has reached a record low, impacted by declining local equities and a strong dollar. The benchmark equity indexes, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, have both fallen approximately 0.7%.
Ramkrishna Forgings has seen a 33% increase in share value in 2024, significantly outperforming the Nifty 50"s 8% rise. UBS projects a potential upside of nearly 60%, setting a target price of ₹1,500, driven by factors such as EV penetration, recent acquisitions, and growth in various sectors. The company reported a 17.2% revenue growth to ₹1,054 crore and a net profit surge of 131% to ₹190 crore in Q2 FY24, bolstered by a one-time gain from a subsidiary sale.
The market has faced pressure for seven consecutive days, dropping below 23,500 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, with a loss of 0.3% on November 18. If the index remains below 23,500, it may decline further to 23,200, aligning with the 50-week EMA. Resistance is expected in the 23,600-23,700 range, indicating a continued bearish trend until key moving averages are surpassed.
The Nifty 50 closed slightly lower at 23,542 on November 14, marking its sixth consecutive decline and a weekly drop of 2.55%. If the index falls below the 200-day EMA, the next support level to watch is 23,200, while resistance may be encountered in the 23,600–23,800 range.
India's benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, have declined by around two percent over the past five trading sessions since November 5, contrasting with a five percent rise in global indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. This downturn is attributed to sluggish domestic corporate earnings, with a net profit growth of just 3.6 percent in the September quarter, marking the slowest growth in 17 quarters due to rising costs and weak revenue growth.
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